Thursday, February 7, 2008

So what now?

First off - a hearty thanks to MSNBC for the spiffy widget you see to your left. We here at the LeComptes blog know you come to us first for the latest updates on the presidential race, so we're just going to steal the info from somewhere else. Also, in the wake of massive popular demand, you can hear my radio interview here.

There are a whole host of things going on today in the wake of Tuesday's raft of primaries. It seems that for the most part the Democratic race is tied - on popular vote and on delegates, which is the count that matters. Hence the previously noted new delegate tracker to the left. We've also been presented with the news that Hillary loaned her campaign $5 million in January and is prepared to loan more. Given that Barack raised $32 million in January to Hillary's $14M, a loan is no surprise, and her senior staff (apart from Mark Penn apparently) are going without pay for the meantime in a show of commitment to the campaign. News of the loan appears to have jolted her supporters into action, as the campaign reports having raised more than $4M since Tuesday's polls closed (Barack reports raising $7.5M in that same period). That's a LOT of money - on both sides. Enough that this contest will be going on for at least another month, if not longer. Barack will certainly be able to put up more advertising, but that's less of an advantage than it was for Super Tuesday because the campaigns will be focusing on fewer states at a time.

Hillary and her campaign are also pushing for one debate a week between now and March. This makes a lot of sense since debates are her turf - but there's been more primary debates between Democrats in this year's primary season than ever before. I think it's a tough case to make that voters haven't had an opportunity to see the candidates face to face. So far Barack has accepted the one he had already previously agreed to.

On the delegate count side - there have been some interesting developments on both sides as well. Gov. Howard Dean and the DNC are apparently pushing Michigan and Florida to hold new caucuses or state conventions so that there won't be a fight about seating their delegates. I think this is a no brainer for MI & FL. Both are big states, and if they were to hold nominating contests now, both would receive the massive influx of media and campaign attention they sought by moving their primaries up in the first place. And the Democratic party avoids the fight over whether to seat the delegates - which will be a Clinton vs Obama battle since both went for Clinton.

The next big fight is next week's Chesapeake Primary - with Virginia, Maryland and Washington, DC (they get to vote in DC?) all making their' picks on Tuesday. On the Republican side, with Romney now out of the race, Virginia may be shaping up to be the last stand of Mike Huckabee. If the conservative establishment is really so unhappy with John McCain, then they will need to rally around Huck in the next week to have any chance of stopping the Straight Talk Express.

2 comments:

Janet said...

Dear Theo and Helen and Roger - I am enjoying your blog so much. Really appreciate being kept up to date with the Obama doings. And I miss Helen and Roger's accounts of Africa and books they like to read. You are in my list of nominees for the You Make My Day Award.

Theo said...

Wow, thanks Janet! We'll try to keep up the good work.