The Goolsbee memo and the Clintons

I can't help but wonder if there is a link here. I realize this is old news by now but it's still worth careful consideration. I should note that I'm not alone--a number of bloggers, mostly Canadian, have the same suspicions for slightly different reasons. (I'd suggest Googling and browsing if you're really interested--the one I've linked to is brief but respectable.)

Here's the story: keep in mind that the Texas and Ohio primaries were held on March 4th. Almost a month earlier, on February 9th, Obama's senior economic adviser, Austan Goolsbee, met with the Canadian consul general, Georges Rioux, in Chicago. That was recorded in a memo by a staff member named Joseph DeMora which went to the Canadian Ambassador and, according to one account I read, 120 other people! The link here is to the actual memo provided by Slate in their "hot documents" section; it's worth reading. Sometime about a week before the Texas primary, Ian Brodie, Prime Minister Harper's chief of staff, mentioned while chatting with reporters during a boring budget session, that he had heard both from the Clinton and Obama campaigns that the NAFTA-bashing could be taken with a grain of salt. As the Canadian press began to show an interest, the Clinton mention was downplayed and then on, I believe, March 3rd, the Goolsbee memo was leaked--at precisely the time when it would do the most good to Clinton because there was so little time left for response.

Why the leak? Why then? And why was Brodie so indiscreet when he has a reputation for total silence? Although the others who are suspicious all point their fingers at the conservative government, I'm inclined to think it makes more sense to look at those 120 recipients, particularly any in CIDA, the Canadian Development Agency. The Canadians are closely aligned with President Clinton in his foundation's AIDS effort--his approach was influenced by Stephen Lewis, the Canadian who served as a UN special envoy for AIDS in Africa and the Canadians were among the very first governments to step up to the plate with increased funding. When I was in Mozambique and volunteering as a Clinton Foundation representative I received very cordial special attention from the Canadians.

What I think is (1) both campaigns did much the same thing but the Obama campaign was less skilled--as noted earlier Goolsbee should never have permitted the memo to circulate without review (2) Clinton's approach was described as "indirect", which means it was easily deniable, but news stories on it at the last minute could still have confused the Ohio campaign (3) the Clinton camp could easily have learned about the memo since the circulation was so wide--easy enough to tip the AP or to ask the relevant friend to leak it.

Enough said. Ariel--thanks for your long and interesting comment. I fully agree that if you want to use primaries as a popular voting mechanism then caucuses aren't a very good mechanism. But in Texas the precinct conventions, which is their proper name, have evolved over the years into a very different purpose: to maintain an open and attractive party organization. If, as a Texan, you'd like to be a delegate to the national convention, then you go to the first level convention and get yourself on the list. Then you attend the senatorial district convention and get yourself on that list and then you go to the state convention and if you are lucky and a good campaigner you are on your way to Denver! I've been around Connecticut and active in politics, more or less, for a good many years, but I really don't know how I could become a Denver delegate if I wanted. So in that sense they work well.

Because the Texans value them, and because the rules are so clear, I don't think there was ever the risk that these would fall into the chaos seen in other states but it's understandable that a national campaign would be worried.

Back to reality: Roger gets home today! There are no primaries for a while! I promise my next post will be about books and local news: my snowdrops are blooming; a seal has been spotted on the rocks at the beach down from ours; the cats have occupied Roger's side of the bed for so long that they are unlikely to be glad to see him. More to come.